Amidst U.S.-Ukraine spat, Russian, Ukrainian, EU Ministers expected at Raisina Dialogue

Nikesh Vaishnav
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External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, a regular speaker at the Raisina Dialogue. File.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, a regular speaker at the Raisina Dialogue. File.
| Photo Credit: ANI

The showdown between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the White House on Friday and events that follow may not directly impact India but they could set the stage for fiery encounters in New Delhi later this month, as the Ministry of External Affairs presents the next edition of the annual ‘Raisina Dialogue’.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are both invited to the dialogue, organised by think tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in Delhi, and sources said they are expected to attend, along with senior U.S. officials.

The chief guest at the event from March 17-19 will be New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, and a number of European Ministers and senior officials, including from Italy, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Slovenia, Lithuania and Estonia.

Several countries, mainly members of the European Union (EU), expressed their support for Mr. Zelenskyy after he left abruptly from the White House after an extended spat with Mr. Trump and U.S. Vice-President J.D. Vance during a media interaction in the White House in Washington. A deal on Ukrainian rare earth minerals due to be signed failed to happen.

“New Zealand remains steadfast in its support for Ukraine as it defends itself in a war that Russia started. It’s mounting the defence of a proud, democratic and sovereign nation, but also the defence of international law,” Mr. Luxon posted on social media on Saturday.

Former Ambassadors react

Indian experts however reacted to the developments differently, with two former senior Ambassadors criticising Mr. Zelenskyy for “inviting” the harsh public treatment by the U.S. President. “Zelenskyy invited it by being argumentative instead of tactfully steering the exchange in a more positive direction,” said former Indian Ambassador to Russia and Chancellor of Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) Kanwal Sibal on social media platform X. “Zelenskyy literally asked for it,” wrote former Indian Ambassador to the U.S. Nirupama Menon Rao on X, adding that “there was no need for him to vent his views on Russia and President Putin” in public.

“At the moment, Ukraine has very few options,” explained Happymon Jacob, founder and director of the Delhi-based Council for Strategic and Defence Research. “The Russian battlefield victories, rapidly declining support from the U.S., and pressure from the Trump administration to negotiate a deal with Russia have put Ukraine on the defensive, and Kyiv may have to agree to terms it may not like, including a ceasefire without future security guarantees,” he told The Hindu. He said the open rift between Washington and Kyiv will also remove all pressure on India to “condemn Russia and stand with the West”, as well as to join sanctions.

The developments will likely dominate discussions at the Raisina Dialogue as well. As many as 1,800 speakers and delegates from more than 120 countries have confirmed their attendance thus far. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha is expected, sources said, subject to events following the showdown in Washington. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met with Mr. Sybiha in Munich earlier this month as well, and said he discussed efforts towards resolving the conflict with Russia, as well as furthering bilateral cooperation. Mr. Sybiha was appointed the Foreign Minister after a major reshuffle by Mr. Zelenskyy in September 2024, that ousted former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who had visited India last year.

Mr. Lavrov has been a regular speaker at the Raisina dialogue, which is seen as New Delhi’s attempt to rival the Munich Security Forum and the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore each year. However, after a particularly heated exchange in the March 2023 session, where he berated the hosts of the event for “not doing their homework” over Russia’s stance on talks with Ukraine, the Russian Foreign Minister and other senior officials were absent from the event in 2024. It remains to be seen whether the ongoing U.S.-Russia talks, held in Riyadh and Istanbul in recent days, require Mr. Lavrov to travel elsewhere, or whether he will attend the dialogue in Delhi.

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