More than a decade after economist and senior counsellor to President Trump, Peter Navarro, warned about China’s growing power in his book Death by China, his once-controversial views are now shaping US policy
This week, the US announced a massive 104% tariff on Chinese goods — a clear sign that Navarro’s tough stance on China has gone mainstream. The new tariffs mark another sharp rise in tensions between the world’s two largest economies, continuing a trade war that has been building for years.
Navarro’s Worldview: China as an existential threat
At the heart of Death by China lies a simple thesis: Beijing is not merely a competitor on the global stage — it is a threat. Navarro, along with co-author Greg Autry, argued that China engages in unfair trade practices, from intellectual property theft and currency manipulation to dangerous product dumping and abusive labour standards. The book’s subtitle — Confronting the Dragon: A Call to Action for the Western World — left little doubt about its sense of urgency.
Navarro claimed that every dollar Americans spent on Chinese goods was a dollar that supported an authoritarian regime that crushed dissent, exploited workers, and posed a strategic threat to democratic nations. “We are buying the rope that will be used to hang us,” he warned in one passage. The metaphor was vivid, the politics confrontational, and the implications global.
Trump’s Tariffs: From fringe theory to policy reality
Peter Navarro’s appointment to Trump’s economic team marked a dramatic shift in Washington’s stance towards China. For decades, US policy was guided by the assumption that integrating China into the global economy — especially through the World Trade Organization — would lead to political liberalisation and economic balance. Navarro’s views turned that logic on its head.
Under Trump, Navarro helped craft a barrage of tariffs targeting hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports. Beginning in 2018, the US imposed waves of levies on Chinese goods, citing the need to correct a massive trade imbalance and to respond to alleged Chinese economic aggression. China retaliated in kind, leading to a protracted trade war that rattled global markets.
While critics warned of rising prices for American consumers and disruptions to global supply chains, Navarro remained undeterred. For him, the short-term pain was necessary. “We cannot be afraid of economic discomfort if it means defending our industrial base and national sovereignty,” he said during a White House press conference in 2019.
The 104% EV tariff: Navarro’s logic reborn?
This week’s announcement by the Trump administration to impose a 104% tariff on Chinese EVs was ostensibly about protecting American industry from predatory pricing. US officials argue that Chinese automakers, backed by generous state subsidies, are flooding the market with low-cost vehicles in a bid to dominate the future of transportation.
The scale and specificity of the measure, however, closely echo Navarro’s worldview. In Death by China, the authors warned of a future where advanced industries — like renewable energy and high-tech manufacturing — would be captured by China, leaving the West both economically dependent and strategically vulnerable.
“First it was steel, then electronics, and now it’s green technology. Each time we cede an industry to China, we lose jobs, we lose leverage, and we lose our future,” Navarro wrote in a follow-up publication, The Coming China Wars.
Critics and consequences
Navarro’s hawkishness has not gone unchallenged. Economists across the ideological spectrum have criticised his embrace of protectionism, calling it both economically unsound and geopolitically risky. Nobel laureate Paul Krugmanonce referred to Death by China as “a dangerous piece of nationalist economic propaganda.”
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank have warned that escalating tariffs — such as the 104% hike on EVs — could fuel inflation, disrupt green energy transitions, and entrench global divisions. China has already hinted at retaliation, possibly targeting American agricultural exports or tech firms operating in mainland markets.
Even some US manufacturers have expressed concern. While shielding domestic EV makers may offer temporary breathing space, they warn that it could delay innovation and invite countermeasures that hurt other sectors of the economy.
A global echo
Navarro’s ideas are no longer confined to the United States. The European Union is currently investigating Chinese EV subsidies, while countries like India, Japan, and Australia are also reassessing their trade exposure to China.
In early 2025, the European Commission released a white paper citing “strategic economic overdependence on authoritarian regimes” — language that mirrors Navarro’s tone and arguments. Germany, once a bastion of free trade with China, is now reevaluating its auto-sector partnerships.
Navarro’s core claim — that free trade with China is not “free” at all, but heavily distorted by state influence — has become a mainstream concern in capitals around the world.
Ideological continuity?
While the Trump administration has not openly credited Navarro for the recent tariff measures, the continuity in China policy is hard to miss. From export controls on advanced semiconductors to the 104% tariff on EVs, the core logic of economic decoupling persists.
Navarro, for his part, sees this as validation. In recent interviews, he has praised the Trump White House for “waking up to the China threat,” even if the pace and scope of action don’t match what he would prefer.
“The dragon doesn’t sleep. It only waits,” he recently said during a conservative conference. “And if we don’t confront it economically now, we’ll face it militarily later.”
From book to blueprint
Death by China may have started as a fringe manifesto, but its ideas have profoundly reshaped global trade debates. Peter Navarro, often ridiculed for his unorthodox views, became the architect of a trade doctrine that is now being sustained and expanded by his ideological opponents.
The 104% tariff on Chinese EVs is not just a policy — it is a symbol. It reflects the West’s deepening mistrust of China, the growing appeal of economic nationalism, and the enduring legacy of a man who wrote that “appeasement through trade is the road to ruin.”
As the world enters an era of technological competition, climate urgency, and geopolitical realignment, Navarro’s warning may no longer be seen as alarmist — but prescient.
